USDOLLAR Post-Fed Rally Eyes First Hurdle- Bullish Above 12146

December 18, 2015
By

Talking Points

USDOLLAR Daily

Technical Outlook: The Dow Jones FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker USDOLLAR) broke through downtrend resistance at the upper median-line parrallel extending off the monthly high with the rally now eyeing resistance at the 2015 high-day close at 12204. The trade remains constructive while above 12146 (bullish invalidation) with a breach of the highs targeting the December high at 12212 the yearly high at 12219. Broader channel resistance is eyed at ~12280/90.

Note that the daily RSI is attempting to break above a resistance trigger extending off the November high and suggests that the momentum profile remains constructrive. A break below 12146 puts us neutreal with a break sub-12123 (April high-day close) needed to put the short-side back into focus targeting 12071. As we approach the holidays and thus illiquid markets, it’s worth reviewing principles that help protect your capital. We call these principles the “Traits of Successful Traders.

USDOLLAR 30min

Notes: The index has continued to trade within the confines of a well-defined ascending median-line formation with a breach of the weekly opening-range highs / Fibonacci resistance at 12131 shifting the focus back to the topside. We’ve been tracking this setup on SB Trade Desk all week and although the broader bias remains weighted to the topside, the dollar remains at risk near-term while below the 2015 high-day close at 12204.

Interim support rests at 12171 backed by our near-term bullish invalidation level at 12146. Event risk is limited heading into the close of the session with U.S. 3Q GDP, Personal Consumption / Income / Spending and Durable Goods Orders highlighting next week’s shortened holiday docket.

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Relevant Data Releases Next Week

Other Setups in Play:

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or ClickHere to be added to his email distribution list

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As we approach the holidays and thus illiquid markets, it’s worth reviewing principles that help protect your capital. We call these principles the “Traits of Successful Traders.

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